The July DemosAU polling gives rare mid‑term insight into ACT politics, and it’s being framed as a dramatic moment for One Nation. But look a little closer, and there's a compelling story about a different - and perhaps much better - alternative..

Independents proving their worth

The poll highlights a surge in support for independents. Their vote share has climbed from 12.9% at the last election to 19% today - a 48% relative increase, and comfortably above a Hare‑Clark quota before preferences. Independents are proving their supporters right, and this seems to have been rewarded in the polling.

We've seen the same story in the Senate with David Pocock as we are now seeing in the Legislative Assembly with Tom Emerson and Fiona Carrick: people who voted for an independent are getting what they bargained for: representation that is local, responsive, and grounded in community priorities. More Canberrans appear to want that.

To earn and keep a constituent's support, community independents must listen, learn about their community's problems, collaborate on solutions, fight for outcomes, and communicate where things are at, at every stage. Their accountability is continuous, not cyclic. Major parties, by contrast, outline what they might do every four years and rely on voters to remember, hope, or trust. It’s no surprise that more Canberrans are choosing the former.

One Nation support - broken down

One Nation’s 14% debut is attention‑grabbing, for sure. But the context matters. Their support draws overwhelmingly from the Canberra Liberals, with a smaller shift from Labor and possibly even a very small one from the Greens. Every major party slid backwards in this poll; independents were the only group to grow.

It’s also worth noting that One Nation’s ACT support is significantly lower than their polling in NSW or nationally. That suggests their message is not cutting through in the Territory. Given the ACT’s demographics, that tracks. Canberra is more educated, more multicultural, and more progressive than most jurisdictions. Culture wars don’t have as great an impact here. It's also worth noting that this sample size of just under 1,000 - whilst considered 'statistically significant' by scientific metrics (when compared to the total population) - would be more robust if we had additional point-in-time studies such as these. It is therefore prudent to take this study as providing good insights, but remaining critical, too. 

The upshot from this poll: Yes, One Nation will have some genuine supporters in Canberra. But, more than that. these numbers in our local context suggest that a growing proportion of Canberra isn’t happy with the major parties and they are looking for alternatives. 

The ACT isn’t shifting right

The most important trend in this polling is not the arrival of One Nation, it’s the continued rise of independents who are proving their worth, earning trust, and reshaping expectations of what representation could and should look like in the ACT. The overall right-wing vote in Canberra isn't growing, but our political dissatisfaction is.